Understanding school students’ aspirations in uncertain times

At a glance

What we did

Today’s young people confront an age shaped by climate change, a succession of natural disasters, geopolitical conflicts, energy crises, and rising inflation. The COVID 19 pandemic further disrupted post school transitions—heightening stress and anxiety and amplifying equity gaps.

Drawing on multiple datasets involving secondary students, parents/carers, teachers, and community members in New South Wales collected over the last twelve years, we examined how current circumstances are shaping post-school aspirations and explored changes over time in how young people articulate their hopes for the future. We conducted new surveys, interviews, and focus groups with teachers, parents, and students in six high schools and one central school from the original study conducted in 2012–15. The schools were located in regional and metropolitan areas, with a majority placed low on the Index of Community Socio-Educational Advantage (ICSEA).

What we found

• Interest in university in general remains high. However, vocational education is gaining value, especially in communities with strong trades-based employment links. Educational aspirations are increasingly pragmatic; students are making calculated choices based on perceived return on investment, financial risk, and community expectations.
• Uncertainty is being experienced both emotionally and materially by young people as they think about their post-school futures. Young people express fear, stress, and doubt about their futures, often shaped by economic and material constraints, housing insecurity, and changing job prospects. Mental health has increasingly become a critical barrier to students’ futures—students across all communities report heightened anxiety about post-school transitions, with some communities seeing pandemic-related spikes in stress and performance pressure.
• Disadvantaged students are increasingly concentrated in under-resourced public schools, compounding their exposure to instability and reducing access to future opportunities.

What we recommend

• Governments and schools should promote and celebrate vocational and hybrid pathways, and universities need to build flexible, blended access models.
• Career education needs to be strengthened through partnerships with local employers and tertiary education and vocational education providers.
• There needs to be greater focus on student wellbeing throughout their school and post-school lives, by better integrating mental health programs into schooling and addressing mental health in tertiary education settings.
• More support is needed for community infrastructure including transport, housing, and digital connectivity, and more investment is needed in public schools, particularly in rural, regional, and low socio-economic status areas.

The full report is available for download in PDF [1 MB] or Word [920 KB] format.